Blood in the Water

The market is shifting. The investors who move now won’t be fighting over the same house as everyone else.

Warren Buffett has said it more than once, in more than one way: the time to buy is when others are sitting on their hands.

Not when the headlines are good. Not when rates feel comfortable and prices feel fair and everyone around you is doing it too. By then, you’re not finding opportunity; you’re just joining the crowd.

The real opportunity looks different. It arrives quietly, before the consensus catches up. It feels a little uncomfortable, which is exactly why most people miss it.

I’ve been in mortgage for 25 years. I’ve watched multiple cycles come and go. And right now, in spite of global uncertainty, in spite of the headlines, in spite of everything, I can feel the market starting to move.

I have more purchase business this month than I’ve had in three years. That’s not a marketing line. That’s what’s happening.

What the analysts are saying

The number circulating in serious real estate and lending conversations right now is 5.5%. That’s the rate at which analysts broadly expect pent-up demand to release: the moment millions of buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines decide the conditions are finally good enough.

Rates are currently in the high 5s. We are close. Very close.

But here’s what most people haven’t absorbed yet:

The buyers waiting for 5.5% to feel ready are going to wake up one morning and find that everyone woke up at the same time. And then the negotiating leverage disappears, the inventory tightens, and the window closes.

FHA and VA buyers:  you’re already there. Rates for FHA and VA loans are already at or near that threshold. If you qualify for either program, the moment the analysts are predicting has already arrived. For you, right now, today.

Blue ocean thinking

In business strategy, a blue ocean is an uncontested market space: open water, no competition, room to move. A red ocean is where everyone is fighting over the same territory.

Right now, real estate is still blue ocean for buyers who are ready to act. Sellers are negotiating. Inventory is available. You can ask for concessions, rate buydowns, closing cost credits. You have leverage you will not have in six months if the market moves the way it appears to be moving.

The investors I work with understand this instinctively. They’re not waiting for certainty, they’re moving because the conditions favor them right now, before everyone else figures it out.

Don’t wait until you’re competing with all your friends for the same house. Get in now while you can still negotiate.

The timing myth

I want to say something honest about market timing, because it comes up in almost every conversation I have.

Nobody buys at the bottom. Not regular buyers, not sophisticated investors, not people who study this for a living. The bottom is only visible in hindsight. What investors actually do is recognize favorable conditions early, and act before the crowd confirms what they already sensed.

The people who built real wealth through real estate didn’t time the market perfectly. They bought when the conditions made sense, held through the noise, and let time do the work.

If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to feel obvious, for rates to drop to a number that feels comfortable, for prices to pull back to something that feels fair, for the global situation to settle down enough that buying feels safe, I want to gently suggest that moment may not come in the form you’re imagining.

What usually comes instead is the moment where everyone decides at once that conditions are good enough. And by then, the advantage has shifted back to sellers.

What I’m seeing on the ground

I’m not working from theory here. I’m working from what’s in my pipeline right now.

Purchase activity is up sharply. Buyers who had gone quiet are coming back. The conversations I’m having have shifted in tone; less “we’re thinking about it eventually” and more “we want to move before things get competitive again.”

These are not naive buyers chasing a hot market. These are people who have been watching carefully, doing the math, and concluding that the calculus has shifted in their favor. They want to act before the window closes.

They’re probably right.

The water is warming. The question is whether you want to be in before everyone jumps in, or after.

So what do you actually do?

If you’re a first-time buyer who has been on the fence: get pre-approved now. Know your number. When the right property comes up, you want to be ready to move, not scrambling to start the process.

If you’re an FHA or VA buyer: understand that the rate environment you’ve been waiting for is here. Talk to a lender, ideally one who will actually walk through the strategy with you, not just quote you a rate.

If you’re an investor: you already know what I’m going to say. The window where you have negotiating leverage and relatively low competition is finite. How you use it is your call.

And if you’re still not sure: let’s talk. Not a sales call. A real conversation about your situation, your goals, and whether the conditions right now actually make sense for you.

Sometimes they don’t. But right now, for a lot of people, they do.

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Liana Pomeroy

Senior Mortgage Loan Advisor

NMLS #295506 | Powered by Xpert Home Lending NMLS #2179191

Equal Housing Lender | Licensed in CO, FL, CA, TN & TX

All loans subject to approval. Conditions apply.